Model risk score
75.9/100
predictive maintenance model
Predicted RUL
13d
remaining useful life
Health index
31/100
telemetry-derived
Model confidence
92%
evidence density
Open snags (tail)
1
unscheduled, open
Aircraft status
Operational
2761 flt hrs · 19y old
✨ AI root-cause analysis
Generating AI analysis…
Predicted failure mode
Thermal-cycling solder fatigue — leading signals: intermittent dropouts, BIT codes.
See the Predictive model tab for the substantiating data points and the Maintenance & spare tab for history and the prescriptive action.
Health degradation & failure projection
Why — model risk drivers
Feature attribution — substantiating data points
| Risk driver | Weight | Severity | Contribution | Substantiating evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Failure imminence | 28% | 78% | 21.9 pts | ~13d to predicted failure |
| Health-index deficit | 30% | 69% | 20.7 pts | health 31/100 |
| Recent unscheduled snags | 12% | 100% | 12.0 pts | 7 unscheduled events on tail |
| Component criticality | 14% | 60% | 8.4 pts | Med |
| Cumulative duty (flight hrs) | 8% | 77% | 6.1 pts | 2,761 flight hrs |
| Airframe age | 5% | 76% | 3.8 pts | 19 yrs (inducted 2007) |
| Spare exposure | 3% | 100% | 3.0 pts | 2 on hand, lead 60d |
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Source: components · maintenance_events · aircraft · spares — model: gradient-weighted risk attribution · governed & traceable
Maintenance activity — SB-1007
This component — Avionics LRU
| Date | Type | Severity | Status | Downtime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Unscheduled | High | Open | 39.9h |
| 2025-03-11 | Unscheduled | Med | Closed | 21.9h |
| 2024-12-04 | Unscheduled | Low | Closed | 5.1h |
| 2024-10-20 | Unscheduled | Low | Closed | 81.7h |
Full aircraft history
| Date | Component | Type | Sev | Status | DT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Avionics LRU | Unsch | High | Open | 39.9h |
| 2025-03-11 | Avionics LRU | Unsch | Med | Closed | 21.9h |
| 2025-02-12 | Ejection Seat Cartridge | Unsch | High | Closed | 3.5h |
| 2025-01-16 | Fuel Control Unit | Sched | Med | Closed | 28.7h |
| 2025-01-13 | Nose Wheel Assembly | Sched | Low | Closed | 54.3h |
| 2024-12-04 | Avionics LRU | Unsch | Low | Closed | 5.1h |
| 2024-10-20 | Avionics LRU | Unsch | Low | Closed | 81.7h |
| 2024-08-24 | Ejection Seat Cartridge | Unsch | High | Closed | 17.7h |
| 2024-06-30 | Oxygen Regulator | Unsch | Low | Closed | 61.0h |
Lead-time history
Stock on hand vs reorder
Required spare & prescriptive action
Required spare
Avionics LRU
on hand 2 · reorder 5 · lead 60d ·
Med
Stock is at/below reorder and lead time has risen to 60 days —
pre-position Avionics LRU at AFS Garuda now to avoid an AOG when the component is pulled.
The same chain is visible fleet-wide on the diagnostic drill-down.
Monthly receipts & consumption
| Month | Lead time | On hand | Received | Consumed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07 | 47d | 20 | 3 | 3 |
| 2025-08 | 44d | 21 | 3 | 5 |
| 2025-09 | 51d | 17 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025-10 | 46d | 16 | 2 | 1 |
| 2025-11 | 49d | 14 | 4 | 5 |
| 2025-12 | 53d | 12 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026-01 | 54d | 11 | 8 | 4 |
| 2026-02 | 53d | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| 2026-03 | 53d | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026-04 | 55d | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026-05 | 59d | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026-06 | 60d | 2 | 0 | 4 |
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Source: spares · spares_history · consumption · governed & traceable